CommentStreams:59284556636b05482c68487f4a094a8f

Sorry I was wrong. I've done a thorough test with all the dup counts and drops numbers in the table and confirmed that, as Light-77-Angel said, the lowest dups for each rarity are most likely to drop. The queue hypothesis was a result of some card being very low on dups in my collection as well as the very steep distribution being used, so that low dup card a extremely likely to drop.

With that understanding in mind it seems like the best tactic for the events coffers is to prefer the highest rarity so that any dips you have in the card numbers are evened out and the card you are looking for finally has a better chance to drop. It's also very importnat not to seduce or dust any cards you don't really want while farming the important cards or their would start dropping most often.