Talk:Lucky Spring/@comment-38499100-20190323012739/@comment-38551567-20190323072911

I just recently got my Officer card a couple hours ago, and have since upgraded it to 3rd Star, but yes, I'm concerned about the cost associated with getting it to 5th Star especially if everyone's assumptions about the Doll and Wind Runner cards disappearing are accurate. I'm a Mathematician, and I kept track of the drop rates for those cards from the various coffers. The best odds are from the Spring Coffer (100 Clovers), but I average only 4 of one of those cards at a time. Using the Binomial Distribution model, I calculated I would need approximately 25,100 Clovers to get even a 33% chance of getting enough of both cards, 50,100 Clovers for 50%, and up to 167,000 Clovers for a 90% chance. Knowing the cheapest way to accrue Clovers is by repeated matches in the Spring Chapters (14 Clovers at Chpts 28, 29, 30) and even if the Double Ruby promo starts in time, I found I'm still being asked to spend about $300 to get enough Rubies for enough matches to get enough Clovers for even that 33% chance of success, or about $750 for a 75% chance. I'm not willing to spend that, so if those cards don't persist during weeks 2 and 3, I'm certain I'll be finding a different game to play.

Correction Edit: I meant 33,400 Clovers for 50%, not 50,100. The latter would be 66% chance.