CommentStreams:95fafb640155ec0e0b132bff969f2d0f

As far as I can tell, Silence is the one ability that takes precedence over everything else, 100% of the time. (I haven't tested Silence v. Silence though, so I have no idea what happens.)

As others mentioned, Silence is unsupported, so the simulator is most likely counting win conditions that aren't actually win conditions for you, meaning that your real chance of winning is less than 42%.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Smutstone sometimes cheats. In the past, people found that the game biases probabilities in favor of the player losing. For example, with normal 3v3 maps you have 210 possible arrangements of cards from your deck. If you assume that each one is equally likely, then if 140 of those combinations have you winning, the simulator would give you a 2/3 chance of winning. Empirically, however, your chances seemed to be lower, meaning that the game favors permutations where you lose.

So even if the simulator says you have a 10% chance of winning (because 1 out of 10 permutations lets you win), your actual chance might be lower.

All I can say is trust your knowledge of game mechanics and try to game it out. Silence always ends as soon as the bone talker dies--if you're sure you can take out the Bone Talker, try to think through what happens next. The card that kills Bone Talker generally won't be able to use her ability on that same turn because it didn't die yet, but the next card should be okay.